Vehicle Market predictions

[The Luke]

With the new addition of a crawler hauler, looking at making some cross country trips within the next year or two, and the family growing, we are looking at upgrading to a diesel. But with the current market prices for used, I'm holding out(indefinitely).
All that said, what's everyone's predictions on prices? New? Used? When will the chips catch up? WILL they catch up? When they do, what kind of discounts will the big three have on their massive back stock of "new-old" inventory? What will happen to used truck prices? What's this mean long term?

I'm thinking they'll be damn near giving away new trucks to clear out the old inventory. Used prices will crash since new trucks will be so affordable. What's everyone's thoughts?

 

[Bebop]

Prices are not going back down and the chip issue will keep going well into 2023.
We have A LOT more demand than supply.

 

[paradisepwoffrd]

From some of the articles I have seen, 2023 seems to be the current prediction of when the chip/conductor supply will catch up. Not sure about the other supply shortages they are likely facing.

As you mentioned, what will they do with all of the inventory they have built. Will they push new models out, so they can still sell these as new? Will they try to unload all of those vehicles to another market/country/gov for a deal, to keep the consumer market wanting "new"?

 

[TBItoy]

I think they'll keep prices high on new stuff and just keep pushing longer and longer terms with 0% interest rates (like 10+ years).

The economy is addicted to debt and big corps are mainlining it.

Borrowing for used vehicles is easier and cheaper than it's ever been also.

 

[ridered3]

No idea on what the market will do, but I'd imagine new prices will keep rising. Logically, the vehicles currently waiting on chip/conductors, will be offered at a discount, so realistically they'll be marketed as super rare 2019-2023 models (COVID edition) and demand a premium.

That said, any ideas on how the chip/conductor shortage is affecting all electric vehicles?

 

[The Luke]

Prices are not going back down and the chip issue will keep going well into 2023.
We have A LOT more demand than supply.

There are lots all over, packed to the brim with 2021 super duty trucks(among other vehicles and manufacturers). Thousands of them. If chips don't come in til 2023, there will be thousands of 2021's that are new old stock. Do we really think they are going to sell them at the same sticker price as the 2023 that's sitting next to them on the lot?
Maybe so. I doubt it. But maybe so.

 

[Bebop]

That said, any ideas on how the chip/conductor shortage affecting all electric vehicles?

In my particular case, the chips that are affecting us aren't linked to the powertrain. So no specific impact on EVs.

I can't say for other manufacturers.

 

[Bebop]

There are lots all over, packed to the brim with 2021 super duty trucks(among other vehicles and manufacturers). Thousands of them. If chips don't come in til 2023, there will be thousands of 2021's that are new old stock. Do we really think they are going to sell them at the same sticker price as the 2023 that's sitting next to them on the lot?
Maybe so. I doubt it. But maybe so.

I cannot talk about the strategy of FoMoCo, but I'm pretty sure they didn't bank build trucks to sell them at a discounted rate.

 

[TBItoy]

The .gov will buy up all the NOS vehicles as a bailout for the automakers, and probably give them to the Taliban.

OR what is more likely, is EV mandates, and the automakers will get tax credits and "carbon credits" for destroying the stockpiles of evil fossil fuel burning vehicles.

I need a set of brand new super duty axles...

 

[bgredjeep]

The used market is nuts. I bought my truck in October and I'm sure I could sell it today for 8-10k more than I paid based on the ads I see posted today.

 

[money_pit_yj]

We are selling 4 year old 100K mile trucks at dealer auctions for more than we paid for them new. My mfg reps tell us it is going to get worse before it gets better. I have heard 4th qtr 22 we should peak and see a downward spiral. The good news is that if you have a half decent trade, you will almost make up for the higher retail. The whole market is inflated so it is not all bad.

 

[xjcrawler]

My question is about these new vehicles sitting for so long, seems like it wouldn't be good when they first fire them up. What will be the long term effect?

 

[Wagfabulous]

They're gonna have to discount them some , think about it . If Im gonna spend 70-80k on new truck it had better just rolled off the line and not set in field with rats living in it this winter .

 

[paradisepwoffrd]

There are lots all over, packed to the brim with 2021 super duty trucks(among other vehicles and manufacturers). Thousands of them. If chips don't come in til 2023, there will be thousands of 2021's that are new old stock. Do we really think they are going to sell them at the same sticker price as the 2023 that's sitting next to them on the lot?
Maybe so. I doubt it. But maybe so.

The chips are coming in, and supposedly the supply is increasing, itll just take til 23 for the supply to reach enough for them to catch up. Not sure if that means enough extra to finish the ones sitting, or just enough to fill the demand at that time.

I would guess that they would try to implement a FIFO type system. So as the 22 and 23 models start rolling out, they would be trying to complete and sell the leftover 21s at a faster rate. Maybe there isnt enough business strategy in that, and they will just leave the 20/21 models to sit for a few years.

 

[The Luke]

The chips are coming in, and supposedly the supply is increasing, itll just take til 23 for the supply to reach enough for them to catch up. Not sure if that means enough extra to finish the ones sitting, or just enough to fill the demand at that time.

I would guess that they would try to implement a FIFO type system. So as the 22 and 23 models start rolling out, they would be trying to complete and sell the leftover 21s at a faster rate. Maybe there isnt enough business strategy in that, and they will just leave the 20/21 models to sit for a few years.

Not sure where they're selling at, but sure as heck not around here. I bet there aren't 6 new super duty trucks sitting on the three ford lots near me. I did see where someone local ish waited 10 months on their power stroke to come in and when it got here it had the gas motor in it.

 

[money_pit_yj]

You can not order any ford over and F250 until the 23 models are released. As a Chevy guy I think it is hilarious when I tell guys they can not order a Ford right now. It will be about 40 trucks in our fleet that will got to Chevy or Dodge.

 

[ridered3]

You can not order any ford over and F250 until the 23 models are released. As a Chevy guy I think it is hilarious when I tell guys they can not order a Ford right now. It will be about 40 trucks in our fleet that will got to Chevy or Dodge.

Something I hadn't thought of until the end of this post, is the chip shortage only screwing Ford but not the other manufacturers?

 

[baldduck74]

Built Ford tough, with China stuff.

 

[JeffH454]

Something I hadn't thought of until the end of this post, is the chip shortage only screwing Ford but not the other manufacturers?

GM's facing the same problems as FoMoCo but it just gets less press because Ford sells 30% more trucks than Chevy. My buddy's a instructor for a large forklift manufacturer and spends a lot of time at GM in Flint..he says they have what looks like 50,000 Chevy trucks scattered around various lots all around town. He also goes to the Springfield Ohio and Fort Wayne plants and they've got stuff sitting around but nothing like up in Michigan.

 

[ridered3]

GM's facing the same problems as FoMoCo but it just gets less press because Ford sells 30% more trucks than Chevy. My buddy's a instructor for a large forklift manufacturer and spends a lot of time at GM in Flint..he says they have what looks like 50,000 Chevy trucks scattered around various lots all around town. He also goes to the Springfield Ohio and Fort Wayne plants and they've got stuff sitting around but nothing like up in Michigan.

Makes sense there. I'd only heard Fords name in relation to the chip shortage so was just curious.