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At 10 AM CDT Tropical Storm Gustav Was Located at…..18.6N…..78.8W
This is about 450 Miles East-Southeast of the Western Tip of Cuba…..
and 1043 Miles Southeast of New Orleans LA
and 1229 Miles Southeast of Galveston TX
Gustav is Moving to the West-Northwest (295 Degrees) Near 8 MPH…..A Turn to the Northwest is
Expected Later Today.
Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 65 MPH…..With Higher Gust
Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward up to 140 Miles from the Center
Estimated Minimum Central Pressure is…..988 Mb’s…..29.18â€
Gustav maintained a very good core structure despite the center traversing the entire length of the island on the south
side. In fact…..the storm has grown in size the last 12 to 18 hours. Upper level outflow is well established in all quadrants
…..and the recon report about three hours ago stated the center was on the beach exiting the west side of the island…..so
it’s just a mater of a short time before Gustav is a hurricane again. I see no reason to not expect a significant amount of
intensification the next day or two. The heat content of the water along the expected path into the Central Gulf of Mexico is
basically the highest in the entire Atlantic basin. Therefore there is a high likelihood of intensification today and Saturday
…..possibly rapid intensification that may bring Gustav all the way up to a Category 5 storm. I certainly expect at least a
strong Cat. 3 or a weak Cat 4 in the middle of the Gulf. The water in the northern half of the Gulf are warm enough to
sustain a major hurricane…..but my feeling right now is whatever level Gustav maxes out at in the Central Gulf it will be
one category weaker at landfall due to some expected wind shear.
The model track guidance spread widened overnight in the northern Gulf…..but has since narrowed somewhat this morning.
The spread widened due to how each model handled the strength of the high pressure ridge that will move across the
Northeastern / Southeastern US early / mid next week. For the most part the usual left side bias models are on the left side
of the expected track…..and the normal right side bias models are on the right. Some of the models solutions with the lowest
performance errors tracking past systems are lining up on the South-central coast of Louisiana near where the current official
landfall forecast is.
It is too early to predict with high confidence a precise landfall location along the US Gulf Coast. However
…..my broad area landfall prediction continues to be from Intracoastal City Louisiana eastward to Mobile
Bay Alabama. I may have to make an adjustment this weekend.
The threat level is HIGH for a major hurricane to track through the central and or eastern sections of the
Gulf of Mexico Gas and Oil Production Region Monday and Tuesday.
Hanna is still expected to end up near the Bahamas mid next week as a hurricane. One good
long range model continues to swing it around Southern Florida and into the Gulf several days behind
Gustav….we’ll see!
Updates will be forthcoming during the weekend if you want to check your email.
At 10 AM CDT Tropical Storm Gustav Was Located at…..18.6N…..78.8W
This is about 450 Miles East-Southeast of the Western Tip of Cuba…..
and 1043 Miles Southeast of New Orleans LA
and 1229 Miles Southeast of Galveston TX
Gustav is Moving to the West-Northwest (295 Degrees) Near 8 MPH…..A Turn to the Northwest is
Expected Later Today.
Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 65 MPH…..With Higher Gust
Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward up to 140 Miles from the Center
Estimated Minimum Central Pressure is…..988 Mb’s…..29.18â€
Gustav maintained a very good core structure despite the center traversing the entire length of the island on the south
side. In fact…..the storm has grown in size the last 12 to 18 hours. Upper level outflow is well established in all quadrants
…..and the recon report about three hours ago stated the center was on the beach exiting the west side of the island…..so
it’s just a mater of a short time before Gustav is a hurricane again. I see no reason to not expect a significant amount of
intensification the next day or two. The heat content of the water along the expected path into the Central Gulf of Mexico is
basically the highest in the entire Atlantic basin. Therefore there is a high likelihood of intensification today and Saturday
…..possibly rapid intensification that may bring Gustav all the way up to a Category 5 storm. I certainly expect at least a
strong Cat. 3 or a weak Cat 4 in the middle of the Gulf. The water in the northern half of the Gulf are warm enough to
sustain a major hurricane…..but my feeling right now is whatever level Gustav maxes out at in the Central Gulf it will be
one category weaker at landfall due to some expected wind shear.
The model track guidance spread widened overnight in the northern Gulf…..but has since narrowed somewhat this morning.
The spread widened due to how each model handled the strength of the high pressure ridge that will move across the
Northeastern / Southeastern US early / mid next week. For the most part the usual left side bias models are on the left side
of the expected track…..and the normal right side bias models are on the right. Some of the models solutions with the lowest
performance errors tracking past systems are lining up on the South-central coast of Louisiana near where the current official
landfall forecast is.
It is too early to predict with high confidence a precise landfall location along the US Gulf Coast. However
…..my broad area landfall prediction continues to be from Intracoastal City Louisiana eastward to Mobile
Bay Alabama. I may have to make an adjustment this weekend.
The threat level is HIGH for a major hurricane to track through the central and or eastern sections of the
Gulf of Mexico Gas and Oil Production Region Monday and Tuesday.
Hanna is still expected to end up near the Bahamas mid next week as a hurricane. One good
long range model continues to swing it around Southern Florida and into the Gulf several days behind
Gustav….we’ll see!
Updates will be forthcoming during the weekend if you want to check your email.
